From Lutheran Disasters
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in global average temperatures and weather patterns, arising from either natural causes or human activity. Increasing temperatures around the world have driven a dramatic increase in the frequency, geographic scope, and severity of many weather-related hazards such as droughts, wildfires, rain events, coastal storms, and hurricanes.
Scientists look at tree rings -stored and archived to look at drought and conditions.
Since 1984, burns are up by 300%, forests in size are up by over 1000% according to Mark Williams, Bio Climatologist at Columbia. More people are living in wooded areas and with the vegetation, there is a higher increase in the possibility of forest fires. What we have to be concerned with are the people living in wooded areas with fewer assets and are more vulnerable, and less equipped for resilency when it comes to disasters.
Radley Horton-Lamont Doherty at the Earth Observatory talks about the conditions which cause increased temperatures in the atmosphere due to global warming. It is called the “Hadley Cell.” There is an increase now of 1 1/2 % in temperature in the atmosphere. It only takes a small increase for a change in the earth’s atmosphere.
The fact is that disasters related to natural hazards are increasing rapidly. Over the last 50 years, the number of disasters worldwide has increased by a factor of five.
NOAA
Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters
Visualize the frequency and cost of billion-dollar weather and climate events using the interactive time series. During 2021, there were 20 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events across the United States. The total cost from these events of 2021 was $145.0 billion and is the third most costly year on record, behind 2017 and 2005.
Climate Disasters
We can take away a couple of important conclusions from the graph. First, the number of disasters costing over $1 billion USD is increasing, particularly since 2011. Second, severe storms and droughts are the hazards that account for most of the billion-plus disasters in recent years. These hazards are among those most exacerbated by climate change.
Climate Change | Department of Energy
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit | U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit
How can climate change affect natural disasters? | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)
Climate Change Research | US EPA
Evidence | Facts – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)
This flood would not cause damage to people and property if people and property weren’t in the way.
Each hazard—be it tornado, hurricane, earthquake, or hazardous material accident – causes certain types of impact. Tornadoes cause wind damage. Hurricanes do too. Hurricanes also cause damage through storm surges, heavy rainfall and possible floods. Earthquakes cause damage through shaking. So, hazards do have impacts, BUT they would not cause harm to people and property if people and property weren’t in the way.
Hazards Interact with Vulnerabilities
Hazards only cause damage to people and property when people and property are vulnerable to them. Synonyms of the word vulnerable include susceptible or prone. There are many different characteristics of people and communities that make people and communities vulnerable to hazards. It is only when a hazard interacts with vulnerabilities that we see a hazard event—or what we might call a “disaster”—occur.
Dw- remove vulnerabilities and less disaster can occur.
Vulnerable populations is the term applied to groups of people who, due to factors usually considered outside their control; do not have the same opportunities as other, more fortunate groups in society.
Community Vulnerabilities
Research has shown consistently that communities are more or less prone to hazards based on a number of things including: where they are located, how dense the population is, the condition of its infrastructure, and how things are built—meaning both the materials used to build and the design of the buildings. These characteristics are called community vulnerabilities.
For example, if there is a community located right on the coast in Florida, that community is already more vulnerable to the worst impacts of a hurricane than a community located further inland. Now, if that community on the coast is also densely populated, then more people are automatically exposed to the hurricane. And if the buildings and infrastructure in that coastal community are not built to the highest building code standards, with the strongest materials, and designed to withstand hurricane-force winds and storm surges, then it is likely that damage will be sustained in a hurricane.
Social Vulnerabilities
Of course, it is not just features at the community level that makes us vulnerable to hazards. It is also the features of the people who live in the communities that make us prone to hazards. These characteristics are labeled social vulnerabilities.
Research has consistently shown that people who are poor, elderly, disabled, chronically ill, homeless, living in congregational care settings, non-English speakers, racial minorities, etc., experience far worse impacts than those who do not fall into one of these categories. And unfortunately, people often fall into more than one of these categories, meaning that we often see incredibly vulnerable people.
Reducing Vulnerabilities
Of course, we also have the option to make our communities less vulnerable. In the case of the coastal community in Florida, vulnerability to hurricanes could be reduced by:
- Locating the community further inland
- Reducing its population density
- Building to the highest standards, with the strongest materials, using designs that we know are better for hurricane-prone areas.
Where communities reduce their vulnerability like this, we see less, and in certain instances, minimal impacts.
Social Vulnerabilities
The same is true for social vulnerabilities. Where we see a lot of socially vulnerable people in a community, we see SEVERE IMPACTS that are incredibly difficult to address. Where we see fewer socially vulnerable people, we see fewer negative impacts and it is easier to address those impacts. Needless to say, social vulnerability is an enormously complex topic which we will not be able to go too far in-depth in this course.
However, it’s essential to understand that while there may be some things people with social vulnerabilities can do to address their vulnerabilities, there are bigger contextual issues at play that limit their ability to fundamentally alter their disaster experiences. We cannot simply tell those who are socially vulnerable, to not be disabled or ill or poor. The impacts experienced by people with social vulnerabilities are not within their control to eliminate by a wave of a magic wand.
The fact is there are a lot of decisions that nations, states and communities make regarding policy and financial investments over long periods of time which ensure social vulnerabilities exist. Research regarding systemic racism and environmental injustice documents these policies, decisions and expenditures over centuries as well as their impact on people, including in disasters.
For our purposes here, it is really important to acknowledge the following.
A consistent and fundamental finding of research over decades is this:
We do not experience hazard events in our communities because of hazards. We experience hazard events because of the choices human beings make at the individual and household level, and within organizations, communities, governments, etc.—the vulnerability we accept or actively create.
Vulnerabilities—social or constructed—are not easy to address. But they do explain why we do and do not see hazard events occur. And it is vulnerabilities that also explain how bad these events are and whether a community and the people in it can handle the impacts they experience easily…or not.
The fact is there are a lot of decisions that nations, states and communities make regarding policy and financial investments over long periods of time which ensure social vulnerabilities exist. Research regarding systemic racism and environmental injustice documents these policies, decisions and expenditures over centuries as well as their impact on people, including in disasters.
For our purposes here, it is really important to acknowledge the following.
A consistent and fundamental finding of research over decades is this:
We do not experience hazard events in our communities because of hazards. We experience hazard events because of the choices human beings make at the individual and household level, and within organizations, communities, governments, etc.—the vulnerability we accept or actively create.
Vulnerabilities—social or constructed—are not easy to address. But they do explain why we do and do not see hazard events occur. And it is vulnerabilities that also explain how bad these events are and whether a community and the people in it can handle the impacts they experience easily…or not.
The National Risk Index
The National Risk Index is a dataset and online tool that leverages available data for natural hazard and community risk factors to help illustrate the U.S. communities most at risk for 18 natural hazards. Take a moment to explore the National Risk Index. What are the top hazards and social vulnerabilities in your own county?
Map | National Risk Index (fema.gov)
Fayette County, PA -High Risk for social vulnerability
Princeton, KY
What makes Jane vulnerable to those hazards?
Jane did not leave early enough
The interstate is closing
Jane did not pack any winter gear
Jane is driving during a blizzard
You are right! Jane is only vulnerable to the blizzard because she chose not to pack any winter gear.
What hazard(s) threatens Tobias?
He does not have a safe room
He lives in Oklahoma
He converted his storm cellar into a swimming pool
A tornado
That’s right! The hazard that threatens Tobias is a tornado.
What makes Tobias vulnerable to the hazard?
The tornado is heading in his directionCorrectly unselected
He does not have a safe room or storm cellarCorrectly selected
He built a swimming poolCorrectly unselected
He heard the sirens and weather radioCorrectly unselectedSUBMITCorrect
Correct! Tobias is vulnerable to the tornado because he does not have a safe room and chose to convert his storm cellar into a swimming pool.
Impact on Communities
Depending on the hazard involved and the vulnerabilities that exist, we will see impacts. Impacts may be direct or indirect.
- Direct impacts are the things we can survey and count. Direct impacts include things like lives lost and damaged or destroyed houses, buildings, roads, businesses and utilities like water or electricity.
- Indirect impacts are those impacts that do not directly result from hazard events and often are the result of direct impacts. An example of an indirect impact is an individual losing income because they missed work due to an injury sustained during a disaster. Indirect impacts are really hard to count and see and are consequences of the direct impacts.
he types of direct impacts that government might experience include damage to or destruction of government buildings, courthouses, fire stations, and the like, and/or damage to or destruction of the infrastructure or utilities it owns and operates, like roads, bridges, and water treatment plants. Additional direct impacts might include damage to or destruction of historical or cultural resources or to the parks and/or environment in which the governed community lives.
As there are many potential direct impacts to government, a range of indirect impacts might result from each of the direct impacts. For example, the loss of a government building can lead to a temporary or long-term reduction in or loss of government services at exactly the time those government services are most needed.
Individuals and households might experience direct impacts like injury, death, and damage or destruction of their residence.
An indirect impact of an injury could be the inability to work which may lead to temporary or permanent income and/or job loss. An indirect impact of the destruction of residence could be temporary displacement which may mean the individual or household has to stay in a shelter or with friends or family for some period of time, or, in some cases, it may lead to homelessness.
Businesses and organizations might experience direct impacts like damage to or destruction of facilities, inventory, supplies, and/or equipment. Each of these direct impacts might lead to a range of indirect impacts. Businesses and voluntary organizations may also experience indirect impacts due to what’s impacted government and individuals and households.
For example, if the electricity is out, a business or voluntary organization may not be able to operate even if there was little damage to their facility. Or if individuals and households were widely impacted, maybe those people cannot come to work—another potential indirect impact.
74 milliom people suffered from disasters in 2021.
Worldwide disasters killed 18,274 people and caused 280 billion in damages-CRED -Munich RE
Flooding, landslides, fires, and storms happen on a small scale and go unreported.
Stakeholders include individuals and households, businesses, nonprofits, faith-based organizations, and governments.
Important for government to have strategies. Data collection an essential part. Disasters can affect food supplies.
Responding to a Hazard Event
As needs grow in number and type and the number of stakeholders impacted increases, it becomes less likely that a community’s traditional response system will be able to manage the event.
Traditional Response
Day-to-day, communities experience a lot of incidents, such as multiple car accidents, and house or apartment fires, and as a result, they have the ability to respond to such emergencies in really routine ways. In most cases, fire, law enforcement, and emergency medical services are dispatched to handle these incidents.
They can do this in large part because the impacts from these types of events are few. They are used to seeing the types of needs that result and are thoroughly trained to meet them. There is no demand for other people or organizations from inside or outside the community to get involved. And in most cases, this kind of response usually works…until it doesn’t.
Capacity to Respond
As the needs related to a hazard event increase, more and more resources are required to meet those needs. In an everyday emergency, just emergency medical services and fire may be needed to manage the needs.
However, think about a tornado that cuts a mile-wide swath through a mid-sized urban area, running through multiple neighborhoods and a business district. Though there is likely to be no fire, there might be a great number of injuries requiring medical attention.
Additionally there may be other groups or professionals to address needs like:
- Shelter & Food Voluntary organizations will typically set up temporary shelters or provide meals to individuals and households until they have another place to go.
- Emotional & Spiritual Care Trained volunteers and professionals are often needed to help meet this need and those may well come from both within and outside the impacted community
- Financial Resources Beyond insurance agents, the federal government may provide some limited resources to help people address those needs, but as is more likely, nonprofits and faith-based organizations are needed to help address the leftover unmet financial needs.
The disaster management cycle is the ongoing process, by which governments, businesses, and individuals plan to reduce the impact of disasters, react during and immediately following a disaster, and recover after a disaster has occurred.
Response & Recovery
The needs that might need to be addressed after a disaster really fall into two groups or functional areas. First, in the immediate aftermath of these events, the goal is to try to minimize injuries, save lives, reduce further damage to property and meet the immediate needs of survivors. The second area focuses on restoring, redeveloping and revitalizing all that was impacted. This first period is relatively short, often five or fewer days, compared to the time associated with the long process that follows.
Response includes the time during and immediately following an event and disaster response work includes any actions taken to save lives or prevent further property damage.
Response work can fall into 2 categories: emergency response and disaster relief.
- Emergency response work is characterized by lifesaving activities such as evacuation, sheltering, and search and rescue. Usually, first responders perform search and rescue activities. The most common first responders will be the fire and police departments. These responders are skilled and trained. Others that respond are neighbors helping neighbors or family members. Faith-based and community-based organizations may also assist but should be identified and trained as first responders.
- Relief work addresses the basic human needs. People need food, water, shelter, and medicine and those with severe injuries need urgent medical help. Also during this phase, homes and businesses begin to be evaluated and cleaned, making them safe with minor repairs done to stop further damage.
Recovery activities are focused on restoring, redeveloping and revitalizing communities impacted by a disaster. Recovery work ramps up as Response subsides and is characterized by permanent repairs and rebuilding and also involves replacing clothing, furniture, equipment and any other personal property replacement. It is during Recovery that the community and its residents begin to move toward a “new normal.”
Some disaster management models may subdivide recovery into rehabilitation (short-term) and reconstruction (long-term) phases as the type of work and priorities shift but again there is no distinct point where one ends and the next begins.
- Short-term recovery occurs as the relief work starts to end. Many of the emergency and relief agencies and programs complete their work. The community infrastructure, services and vital life supports start to function normally. There is no distinct line when relief work ends and short-term recovery starts.
- Long-term recovery is one of LDR’s core competencies. Routines of daily life begin to resume with thoughts and activities looking toward what steps need to take be taken to shape the new normal for the community and its residents. Often a coordinated community-needs assessment, administered by the community, will help identify what still needs to be done. The disaster case management process can help identify the most pressing needs. SHAPE THE NEW NORMAL
A successful recovery goes beyond the restoration of structures, systems and services. It is also about people being able to rebound from their losses and sustain their physical, social, economic and spiritual well-being. Rebuilding a community to pre-disaster levels is a long process and depending on the severity of the disaster, this work can last years or decades.
Preparedness & Mitigation
Of course, Response and Recovery are highly reactive. Those are the tasks and activities in which government and voluntary organizations engage to meet needs upon impact. However, there are also tasks and activities in which we can engage proactively to get ready for hazard events or reduce or eliminate the impacts from the hazard events.
Mitigation efforts focus on directly preventing future disasters and/or minimizing the effects of unavoidable disasters. Mitigation activities can take place before or after disasters.
This work might involve making changes in local building codes to fortify buildings; revised zoning and land use management; purchasing insurance policies; strengthening public infrastructure; and any other efforts to make the community more resilient to a catastrophic event.
Preparedness efforts include plans or preparations made in advance of an emergency that help individuals and communities get ready. Preparedness efforts occur before an event and are often modified or strengthened in response to an event.
These activities can include any plans or preparations made to save lives and to help response and rescue operations. Individuals can buy first aid kits or create emergency packs that can be accessed during a disaster. Businesses, institutions, and community develop emergency plans that are activated in the event of an emergency. They also will hold practice exercises or drills to rehearse and test their plans before an actual emergency occurs.
A Never Ending Cycle
While the disaster management cycle is often depicted as a circle with 4 separate sections, it’s important to realize that these “phases” are not separate stages that have a distinct beginning and end. For instance, it is not as if all preparedness activities cease as soon as Response begins or that only recovery activities can happen during Recovery. Activities from each phase can occur at the same time.
It may be more accurate to say that each “phase” takes priority for a time and those activities make up the bulk of the work that is occurring. For example, even while response activities are occurring, emergency plans may be updated or mitigation projects, like flood buy outs or building levees are enacted during Recovery. All communities are in at least one phase at any given moment in time.
We do not experience hazard events, or disasters, because of hazards. We experience hazard events because of the choices human beings make and because of the vulnerability we accept or actively create.